Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 17.868855 21.616465 25.775194 30.707183 36.370273 42.642812 50.088212
2025-04-06 12.976772 18.001903 24.178415 32.213714 42.266428 54.298365 69.646356
2025-04-13 8.858625 13.853201 20.550688 29.947616 42.522356 58.482860 79.947225
2025-04-20 7.050053 12.176139 19.552279 30.531570 45.993265 66.487244 95.119661
2025-04-27 5.820328 11.001674 18.940517 31.377341 49.662448 74.782185 110.980434
2025-05-04 4.939704 10.150550 18.603184 32.458206 53.603053 83.550350 127.840289
2025-05-11 4.161544 9.285792 18.069934 33.098369 56.842069 91.419094 143.767103
2025-05-18 3.394972 8.259919 17.088111 32.857719 58.639998 97.217244 156.951838
2025-05-25 2.670297 7.133398 15.735607 31.802492 58.999183 100.810449 167.009779
2025-06-01 2.179123 6.360299 14.882813 31.457928 60.396263 105.956301 179.499045
2025-06-08 1.685877 5.442854 13.593457 30.159241 60.054446 108.318036 187.814097
2025-06-15 1.499551 5.210438 13.627619 31.270623 63.843781 117.337396 206.656445
2025-06-22 1.183242 4.582761 12.806634 30.813792 65.133464 122.840276 221.006335
2025-06-29 1.046374 4.413716 12.973158 32.341114 70.134279 134.788746 246.271869
2025-07-06 0.726408 3.555883 11.378412 30.068753 67.964992 134.620240 252.055597
2025-07-13 0.606853 3.295807 11.165001 30.654662 71.166388 143.699421 273.248113
2025-07-20 0.517258 3.102632 11.081344 31.503168 74.916664 153.890746 296.666169
2025-07-27 0.449000 2.960690 11.104959 32.587503 79.192327 165.188202 322.347854
2025-08-03 0.377962 2.768896 10.948977 33.229709 82.610912 175.096241 346.023912
2025-08-10 0.297742 2.482368 10.451297 32.988292 84.187240 181.725558 364.309592
2025-08-17 0.218206 2.132735 9.668340 31.929687 83.950584 184.983280 376.839641
2025-08-24 0.167822 1.900074 9.196188 31.584015 85.182410 190.995564 394.372173
2025-08-31 0.116735 1.601146 8.406689 30.281131 84.198693 192.736269 404.351603